Unwieldy-Quince
0x83741e1105434080431b598ed6b4e90d8bd99149
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$11.5K
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$-2.6K
Win rate
18%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
4510 shares @ 73.4¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.2K
$882.48
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
2168 shares @ 60.7¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.0K
$646.03
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
2528 shares @ 59.6¢·now 66.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.7K
$174.51
- NO
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
1483 shares @ 91.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.5K
$131.25
- NO
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?
328 shares @ 91.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$326.36
$27.88
- NO
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
289 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$289.00
$138.72
- NO
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?
229 shares @ 78.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$229.19
$49.24
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
200 shares @ 74.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$185.00
$37.00
- YES
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
182 shares @ 58.6¢·now 88.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$160.61
$54.22
- YES
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?
181 shares @ 73.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$130.32
$-1.81
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 10, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
18% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.