Secret-Rotation
0x83839e78feda005e0054b2df1f3e634fb64ad0dc
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
194
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$21.84
Win rate
40%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 194- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
1971 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-17.20
- NO
Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday?
1851 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2025$0.00
$-23.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30–35 million views on day 1?
1667 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45-50 million views on day 1?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4?
1316 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025$0.00
$-45.99
- YES
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 5?
1184 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025$0.00
$-28.99
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35–40 million views on day 1?
1053 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-7.00
- NO
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?
1025 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 30 million views on day 1?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet between 390 and 419 times August 29–September 5?$1.32Sep 4, 18:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?$0.50Sep 4, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 26-September 1?$1.00Sep 4, 18:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?$0.85Sep 4, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet between 390 and 419 times August 29–September 5?$1.00Sep 4, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1?$0.84Sep 4, 18:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon tweet between 480 and 509 times August 29–September 5?$0.89Sep 4, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet between 480 and 509 times August 29–September 5?$1.00Sep 4, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon tweet between 1450 and 1499 times September 1–30?$1.00Sep 4, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1?$1.00Sep 4, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 60-70 million views on week 1?$1.00Sep 3, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet between 390 and 419 times August 29–September 5?$1.00Sep 3, 08:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill The Stokes Twins' next video get between 27-30 million views on week 1?$0.57Sep 3, 02:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Stokes Twins' next video get between 27-30 million views on week 1?$1.00Sep 3, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 60-70 million views on week 1?$1.20Sep 3, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet between 570 and 599 times August 29–September 5?$1.35Sep 1, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet between 1450 and 1499 times September 1–30?$1.00Aug 31, 11:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get between 35-40 million views on day 1?$4.94Aug 31, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 370–384 times August 29–September 5?$1.00Aug 31, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5?$1.00Aug 31, 10:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 26, 17:06 UTC
- Last active
- Sep 4, 18:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.