Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.3K

Realised

$-47.22

Win rate

200 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
34 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026
$0.00
$-2.38
UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
25 shares @ 14.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$0.00
$-3.60
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - July 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
23 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026
$0.00
$-2.93
UP
XRP Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
23 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$0.00
$-3.24
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - July 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
20 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026
$0.00
$-3.42
UP
XRP Up or Down - July 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
20 shares @ 34.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026
$0.00
$-6.90
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
19 shares @ 20.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$0.00
$-3.90
DOWN
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
18 shares @ 23.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026
$0.00
$-4.20
UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
18 shares @ 44.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026
$0.00
$-7.80
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
17 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$0.00
$-3.90

Recent activity

TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$0.23Aug 15, 20:48 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$14.00Aug 15, 20:46 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$2.99Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$2.94Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$2.89Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$1.90Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$2.54Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$2.44Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$2.29Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$2.34Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$2.24Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$2.94Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$2.89Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$2.09Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$2.14Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$2.03Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$1.83Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$1.93Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$1.88Aug 15, 20:30 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - August 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$12.07Aug 15, 19:01 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

67/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 200 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

200 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity71 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry86 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 42
Avg trade size: $2.44
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 15, 13:56 UTC
Last active: Aug 15, 20:48 UTC
Win rate sample: 200 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 22:45:41 UTC·src:Polymarket Data