Earnest-Standoff
0x83aab7795cf69126ba95faf4bcaef2cbeabd35bb
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
76
Open notional
$168.04
Total PnL
$0.60
Realised
$4.85
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 76- NO
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 5?
20 shares @ 84.3¢·now 97.2¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$19.43
$2.58
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 5?
10 shares @ 53.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$9.99
$4.64
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 6?
10 shares @ 96.5¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$9.76
$0.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 6?
10 shares @ 94.3¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$9.56
$0.13
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on July 5?
10 shares @ 89.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$9.53
$0.63
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on July 6?
10 shares @ 98.2¢·now 96.2¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$9.40
$-0.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 6?
10 shares @ 92.1¢·now 92.8¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$9.29
$0.07
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 6?
10 shares @ 92.4¢·now 91.8¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$9.19
$-0.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?
10 shares @ 94.4¢·now 91.3¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$9.13
$-0.31
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 5?
20 shares @ 9.1¢·now 44.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$8.80
$6.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 6?$4.65Jul 4, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 6?$4.82Jul 4, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 6?$4.83Jul 4, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 6?$0.33Jul 4, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on July 6?$4.67Jul 4, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 6?$1.17Jul 4, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 6?$4.62Jul 4, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 6?$4.63Jul 4, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 6?$4.56Jul 4, 18:08 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Shenzhen on July 6?$5.00Jul 4, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 6?$3.04Jul 4, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 6?$0.76Jul 4, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on July 6?$4.84Jul 4, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 6?$3.15Jul 4, 16:07 UTC
- CONVERSIONLowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?$10.00Jul 4, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 5?$2.55Jul 4, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 5?$2.60Jul 4, 15:15 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Paris on July 6?$5.00Jul 4, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 5?$0.86Jul 4, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 5?$3.46Jul 4, 14:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $3.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 12:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 21:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.