Wallet digest

active

Activity score

58/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$53.63

Total PnL

$-152.66

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
13 shares @ 83.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$12.97
$1.97
NO
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
9 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$9.14
$0.03
NO
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
8 shares @ 97.3¢·now 97.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$7.88
$0.04
NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
26 shares @ 97.4¢·now 20.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$5.25
$-19.75
NO
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$4.99
$-0.01
NO
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 98.2¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$4.93
$0.07
NO
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp May 31, 2026
$4.57
$-0.01
NO
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$3.90
$0.00
YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
35000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025
$0.00
$-35.00
YES
Will AZZ (AZZ) beat quarterly earnings?
107 shares @ 93.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 8, 2025
$0.00
$-100.00

Recent activity

YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 15, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 14, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 13, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 12, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 11, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 10, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 9, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 8, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 7, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 6, 00:13 UTC
REDEEMWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $292 Week of June 1 2026?$4.83Jun 5, 21:03 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

pass

3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity45 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry0 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk52 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 3
Avg trade size: $4.80
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 11, 00:13 UTC
Last active: Jun 24, 00:18 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 02:35:44 UTC·src:Polymarket Data