Discrete-Roar
0x83ebbd770ebe6d4dc6dfc672ae5a4e56e67e2ea6
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$20.00
Total PnL
$-165.35
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30?
20 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$20.00
$3.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?
215 shares @ 55.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2025$0.00
$-118.85
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?
100 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-22.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?
55 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-27.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days?$0.00May 16, 03:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend?$0.00May 16, 03:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'Minecraft' gross between 48-64m on opening weekend?$0.00May 16, 03:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill a nuclear weapon detonate by March 31?$28.50May 16, 03:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Pope Francis step down before July? $113.00May 16, 03:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump cut military spending?$115.00May 16, 03:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?$217.99May 16, 03:46 UTC
- REDEEMYoon out as president of South Korea before April?$255.00May 16, 03:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend?$15.60Mar 25, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend?$5.20Mar 25, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 'Minecraft' gross between 48-64m on opening weekend?$33.00Mar 25, 18:51 UTC
- TRADESELLNo Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30?$67.67Mar 25, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYYoon out as president of South Korea before April?$84.00Mar 25, 18:45 UTC
- TRADESELLYoon out as president of South Korea before April?$12.80Mar 25, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYYoon out as president of South Korea before April?$130.20Mar 25, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYYoon out as president of South Korea before April?$14.40Mar 25, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30?$68.08Mar 25, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend?$0.00Mar 25, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?$51.25Mar 12, 18:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?$0.00Mar 12, 17:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $37.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 19, 08:26 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 03:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.