Wallet digest

active

Activity score

70/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$188.77

Total PnL

$-4.49

Realised

$-3.16

Win rate

12 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 24

OVER
Derry City FC vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: O/U 0.5
74 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$74.18
$7.38
OVER
FC Universitatea Cluj vs. FK Dynamo Kyiv: O/U 0.5
80 shares @ 82.8¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$48.62
$-17.92
YES
Exact Score: Derry City FC 0 - 0 PFK CSKA Sofia?
74 shares @ 4.2¢·now 46.6¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$34.58
$31.49
YES
Exact Score: FC Universitatea Cluj 0 - 0 FK Dynamo Kyiv?
80 shares @ 6.1¢·now 39.1¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$31.38
$26.49
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Exact Score: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC 0 - 0 Qingdao Xihaian FC?
88 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-20.33
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 9?
20 shares @ 41.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-8.25
UNDER
France vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5
10 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-3.20
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET
7 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLDerry City FC vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: O/U 0.5$25.47Jul 16, 18:35 UTC
TRADEBUYDerry City FC vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: O/U 0.5$93.16Jul 16, 18:35 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Derry City FC 0 - 0 PFK CSKA Sofia?$3.24Jul 16, 18:35 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: FC Universitatea Cluj 0 - 0 FK Dynamo Kyiv?$1.38Jul 16, 17:54 UTC
TRADEBUYFC Universitatea Cluj vs. FK Dynamo Kyiv: O/U 0.5$3.30Jul 16, 17:54 UTC
TRADESELLExact Score: FC Universitatea Cluj 0 - 0 FK Dynamo Kyiv?$0.96Jul 16, 17:49 UTC
TRADESELLExact Score: FC Universitatea Cluj 0 - 0 FK Dynamo Kyiv?$0.10Jul 16, 17:48 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: FC Universitatea Cluj 0 - 0 FK Dynamo Kyiv?$1.70Jul 16, 17:47 UTC
TRADESELLFC Universitatea Cluj vs. FK Dynamo Kyiv: O/U 0.5$7.56Jul 16, 17:47 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: FC Universitatea Cluj 0 - 0 FK Dynamo Kyiv?$1.09Jul 16, 17:46 UTC
TRADEBUYFC Universitatea Cluj vs. FK Dynamo Kyiv: O/U 0.5$23.52Jul 16, 17:46 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: FC Universitatea Cluj 0 - 0 FK Dynamo Kyiv?$2.18Jul 16, 17:45 UTC
TRADEBUYFC Universitatea Cluj vs. FK Dynamo Kyiv: O/U 0.5$48.03Jul 16, 17:45 UTC
TRADESELLEngland vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$2.33Jul 15, 20:58 UTC
TRADESELLWill England vs. Argentina end in a draw?$0.19Jul 15, 20:58 UTC
TRADESELLEngland vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$21.54Jul 15, 20:57 UTC
TRADESELLWill England vs. Argentina end in a draw?$3.18Jul 15, 20:57 UTC
TRADESELLWill England vs. Argentina end in a draw?$3.76Jul 15, 20:56 UTC
TRADESELLEngland vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$31.34Jul 15, 20:56 UTC
TRADESELLEngland vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$13.45Jul 15, 20:56 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

35/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

8% win rate over 12 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity73 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence40 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry54 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk49 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 50
Avg trade size: $11.83
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 14, 20:26 UTC
Last active: Jul 16, 18:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 12 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 19:00:20 UTC·src:Polymarket Data