Negative-Mantel
0x841ecff6521b4662c387bb19623644ac77ab90fc
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-777.93
Realised
$-20.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?
803 shares @ 31.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-250.00
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
800 shares @ 13.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-111.04
- YES
Grok 4.20 released by February 14?
628 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-56.37
- YES
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?
569 shares @ 21.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-120.00
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
410 shares @ 27.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-113.42
- YES
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?
255 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-107.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$111.04Mar 11, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLDeepSeek V4 released by March 31?$112.70Mar 11, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeepSeek V4 released by March 31?$5.66Mar 9, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeepSeek V4 released by March 31?$4.20Mar 9, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeepSeek V4 released by March 31?$1.26Mar 9, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeepSeek V4 released by March 31?$42.00Mar 9, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeepSeek V4 released by March 15?$30.00Mar 9, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeepSeek V4 released by March 31?$3.62Mar 9, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeepSeek V4 released by March 31?$100.41Mar 9, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeepSeek V4 released by March 31?$2.63Mar 9, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeepSeek V4 released by March 31?$38.46Mar 9, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeepSeek V4 released by March 31?$11.76Mar 9, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?$371.45Mar 8, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?$5.00Mar 8, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeepSeek V4 released by March 15?$20.00Mar 7, 21:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?$21.70Mar 7, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?$80.00Mar 7, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?$50.00Mar 7, 18:07 UTC
- TRADESELLGreece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?$52.97Mar 7, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?$20.00Mar 6, 14:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $53.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 5, 16:13 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 11, 14:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.