Primary-Decline
0x84242b73a9422b73abbefa36179de2facf7c963e
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$4.55
Total PnL
$-129.50
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
5 shares @ 22.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.55
$3.55
- YES
Will Elon Musk tweet 500-549 times February 7-14?
215 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2025$0.00
$-34.40
- YES
Will Elon Musk tweet 450-499 times February 7-14?
208 shares @ 11.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2025$0.00
$-24.20
- YES
Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 14-21?
205 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2025$0.00
$-5.30
- YES
Will Elon Musk tweet 400-449 times February 7-14?
203 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2025$0.00
$-16.20
- YES
Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14?
183 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2025$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk tweet 600-649 times February 7-14?
137 shares @ 15.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2025$0.00
$-20.94
- YES
Will Elon Musk tweet 550-599 times February 7-14?
108 shares @ 16.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2025$0.00
$-18.01
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
14 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?$1.00Apr 23, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$1.00Apr 22, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.00Apr 21, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$1.00Apr 20, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 14-21?$5.30Feb 15, 00:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14?$5.30Feb 9, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk tweet 550-599 times February 7-14?$2.91Feb 9, 04:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk tweet 300-349 times February 7-14?$2.91Feb 9, 04:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump's approval rating be between 56% and 58% on January 31?$0.00Feb 8, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31?$0.00Feb 8, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?$0.00Feb 8, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill ECB make no change in interest rates in January 2025?$0.00Feb 8, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump's approval rating be 58% or higher on January 31?$0.00Feb 8, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?$0.00Feb 8, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill xAI have the top AI model on January 31?$0.00Feb 8, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin before February?$0.00Feb 8, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill ECB raise interest rates in January 2025?$0.00Feb 8, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?$0.00Feb 8, 20:27 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?$0.00Feb 8, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14?$2.15Feb 8, 14:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $7.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 27, 07:10 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 23, 13:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.