Idle-Explanation
0x8429ce2db0d961d701f009e7294058c6391c642f
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.7K
Realised
$-0.70
Win rate
43%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 6?
6259 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-45.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 6?
3000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 6?
1788 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-12.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 6?
1447 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-68.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or higher on May 9?
1172 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.98
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C or higher on May 10?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or below on May 10?
917 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.76
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 6?
900 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.80
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
883 shares @ 44.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-393.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C or higher on May 9?
872 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.41
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$122.00Jun 20, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$7.42Jun 20, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$4.95Jun 20, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$4.95Jun 20, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$9.90Jun 20, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$4.95Jun 20, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$0.14Jun 20, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$4.95Jun 20, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$4.95Jun 20, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$4.95Jun 20, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$4.81Jun 20, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$4.95Jun 20, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$5.93Jun 20, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$6.93Jun 20, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$9.90Jun 20, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$9.90Jun 20, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$4.95Jun 20, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$4.95Jun 20, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$6.44Jun 20, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$4.95Jun 20, 21:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $6.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 19:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 21:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.