0x8450e0d504dbf81e20147dc5116f76cecc424fcc
0x8450e0d504dbf81e20147dc5116f76cecc424fcc
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
123
Open notional
$354.53
Total PnL
$-298.00
Realised
$-5.22
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 123- NO
Reckless Ben arrested by July 31?
15 shares @ 99.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.02
$-0.98
- NO
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + UDMR?
8 shares @ 99.0¢·now 83.7¢·exp May 31, 2026$6.40
$-1.17
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026?
5 shares @ 91.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.01
$0.44
- NO
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 92.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.00
$0.35
- YES
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.00
$0.30
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
5 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.00
$0.45
- NO
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.00
$0.50
- YES
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.00
$0.25
- NO
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 90.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.00
$0.48
- NO
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 260m and 280m?
5 shares @ 93.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$5.00
$0.32
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 Week of July 27 2026?$5.00Aug 1, 01:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 Week of July 27 2026?$5.01Aug 1, 00:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?$5.00Aug 1, 00:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $322.50 Week of July 27 2026?$5.00Jul 31, 23:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?$4.81Jul 31, 23:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$5.00Jul 31, 23:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of July 27 2026?$5.00Jul 31, 23:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$5.00Jul 31, 23:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Six Seven" during cabinet meeting?$5.00Jul 31, 22:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $117 Week of July 27 2026?$5.00Jul 31, 22:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$5.00Jul 31, 22:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $960 Week of July 27 2026?$5.00Jul 31, 22:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of July 27 2026?$5.00Jul 31, 22:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $315 Week of July 27 2026?$5.00Jul 31, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$4.67Jul 31, 22:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of July 27 2026?$5.00Jul 31, 21:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in July?$5.00Jul 31, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of July 27 2026?$5.00Jul 31, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$5.01Jul 31, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$4.62Jul 31, 21:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
14 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $4.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 17:57 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 01:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.