Remarkable-Sunlight-Tomatillo
0x8453d53c4414843cdb331101af0ff16a8671fd41
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
63
Open notional
$1.50
Total PnL
$-150.05
Realised
$-4.56
Win rate
0%
62 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 63- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
1 shares @ 97.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- YES
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
3 shares @ 33.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.47
$-0.53
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 12?
99 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
44 shares @ 63.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-28.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
29 shares @ 85.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
12 shares @ 25.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
11 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
10 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$1.00Aug 20, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$1.06Aug 20, 20:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$3.57Aug 20, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$1.05Aug 20, 20:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 19?$1.37Aug 20, 20:40 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$1.09Aug 19, 19:38 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$0.16Aug 19, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$1.03Aug 19, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$1.01Aug 19, 18:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$1.14Aug 19, 18:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$1.41Aug 19, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$1.01Aug 19, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$1.02Aug 19, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$1.02Aug 19, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$1.04Aug 19, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$1.05Aug 19, 16:50 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$1.52Aug 19, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$1.02Aug 19, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 19?$1.01Aug 19, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 18?$1.03Aug 18, 16:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 62 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
62 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 13:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 20:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 62 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.