Miniature-Shoelace
0x846b04f7196cfcfaaf5c6cce4c6560268efc63b6
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
78
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-508.82
Realised
$-79.88
Win rate
1%
78 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 7?
708 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-4.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 7?
659 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-26.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 3?
477 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-6.97
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 7?
307 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-26.94
- YES
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
303 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 30?
237 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-7.08
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 1?
233 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on July 4?
212 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 6?
154 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.54
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on July 4?
121 shares @ 11.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-13.67
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on July 15?$8.06Jul 15, 17:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 15?$27.27Jul 15, 16:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 15?$10.53Jul 15, 16:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 15?$15.00Jul 15, 16:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 15?$5.40Jul 15, 16:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on July 15?$1.45Jul 15, 16:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 15?$16.83Jul 15, 16:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 15?$5.28Jul 15, 09:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 15?$1.48Jul 15, 09:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 15?$1.42Jul 15, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 15?$6.34Jul 15, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 15?$6.88Jul 15, 09:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 15?$8.81Jul 15, 09:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 15?$8.76Jul 15, 09:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 15?$8.65Jul 15, 09:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 15?$3.14Jul 15, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 15?$2.20Jul 15, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 15?$1.32Jul 15, 08:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on July 15?$1.43Jul 15, 08:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on July 15?$7.98Jul 15, 08:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 78 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
78 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $7.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 03:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 17:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 78 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.