Miniature-Shoelace
0x846b04f7196cfcfaaf5c6cce4c6560268efc63b6
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$93.49
Total PnL
$-186.71
Realised
$-43.00
Win rate
10%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1800 shares @ 1.5¢·now 1.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$26.10
$-0.90
- YES
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2774 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$23.58
$-1.38
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 2?
23 shares @ 48.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$22.91
$11.91
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 4?
29 shares @ 37.5¢·now 35.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$10.28
$-0.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?
28 shares @ 36.6¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$9.77
$-0.30
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on July 3?
24 shares @ 45.3¢·now 2.7¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.66
$-10.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 3?
10 shares @ 1.5¢·now 1.9¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.19
$0.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 2?
28 shares @ 16.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.01
$-4.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 30?
237 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-7.08
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 1?
233 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.80
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?$4.91Jul 3, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?$5.47Jul 3, 02:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?$12.38Jul 3, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?$7.22Jul 3, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?$7.36Jul 3, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?$4.15Jul 3, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?$4.88Jul 3, 01:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?$14.64Jul 3, 01:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on July 3?$0.76Jul 3, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?$17.37Jul 3, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 3?$0.16Jul 3, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on July 3?$0.83Jul 3, 01:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 3?$2.41Jul 3, 01:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 3?$4.15Jul 3, 01:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 3?$4.21Jul 3, 00:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 3?$5.15Jul 3, 00:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 3?$4.76Jul 3, 00:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 3?$4.93Jul 3, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 3?$7.79Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $7.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 19:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 02:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.