Early-Mug
0x8471d25c701cd2704ba1fc784f1070781c175566
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$-87.98
Win rate
17%
64 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 29?
1040 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 3?
447 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-30.62
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 3?
168 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-25.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 2?
149 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-13.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 3?
89 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-18.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 3?
64 shares @ 12.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-8.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 2?
54 shares @ 29.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-15.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 28?
52 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?
50 shares @ 13.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-6.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 4?
49 shares @ 34.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-16.72
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$8.12Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 5?$20.01Jul 6, 08:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 5?$6.25Jul 6, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 5?$19.80Jul 6, 08:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 5?$1.53Jul 5, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 5?$3.82Jul 5, 16:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 5?$0.27Jul 5, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 5?$3.62Jul 5, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 5?$0.28Jul 5, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 5?$3.64Jul 5, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 5?$5.19Jul 5, 10:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 5?$0.72Jul 5, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 5?$1.31Jul 5, 10:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 5?$0.15Jul 5, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 5?$1.13Jul 5, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 5?$0.13Jul 5, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 5?$1.89Jul 5, 08:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 4?$16.00Jul 5, 08:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 4?$5.15Jul 5, 08:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 4?$20.00Jul 5, 08:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
63/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 64 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
64 closed markets, 17% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $2.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 16:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 64 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.