Strict-Bacon
0x8473b3cf4b2af4cfb5b8e7c61464bde829f470ef
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$7.4K
Total PnL
$203.67
Realised
$426.03
Win rate
12%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
1368 shares @ 18.7¢·now 71.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$971.20
$715.31
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
2693 shares @ 14.8¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$848.25
$448.26
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
2079 shares @ 52.9¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$758.98
$-341.01
- YES
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
1608 shares @ 12.4¢·now 44.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$709.34
$509.34
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
844 shares @ 47.4¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$700.50
$300.51
- YES
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
1903 shares @ 40.7¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$428.22
$-346.77
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
1031 shares @ 38.8¢·now 40.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$420.27
$20.27
- YES
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?
989 shares @ 40.4¢·now 41.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$410.46
$10.46
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
761 shares @ 13.1¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$399.44
$299.44
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
1683 shares @ 31.9¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$361.82
$-175.06
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?$440.00Aug 14, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYKylian Mbappé: 4+ shots AND Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND France vs. Spain: Team to Advance AND France vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$14.76Jul 14, 17:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- REDEEMNorway vs. England: Team to Advance$55.25Jul 12, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?$14.99Jul 11, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYHarry Kane: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. England: Team to Advance$15.00Jul 11, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Team to Advance$25.68Jul 11, 21:41 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$3.31Jul 9, 21:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYGranit Xhaka: 2+ shots AND Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance AND Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5$9.99Jul 7, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwitzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance AND Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots AND Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5$9.99Jul 7, 19:50 UTC
- REDEEMArgentina vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance$25.66Jul 7, 18:40 UTC
- REDEEMArgentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance$38.46Jul 7, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYLuis Díaz: 3+ shots AND Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance AND Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5$10.00Jul 7, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance$20.29Jul 7, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance$9.99Jul 7, 16:30 UTC
- REDEEMUnited States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance$188.16Jul 7, 02:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
12% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $55.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 27, 20:28 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 21:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.