0x847ef71b1898bd8f1b2f3817487a0813a6b8db5f
0x847ef71b1898bd8f1b2f3817487a0813a6b8db5f
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$90.31
Total PnL
$-5.86
Realised
$15.86
Win rate
33%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 21?
49 shares @ 48.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$48.75
$25.20
- YES
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
8 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.19
$3.19
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or below on February 24?
5 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$5.00
$1.45
- NO
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?
4 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$3.73
$0.37
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
4 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$3.72
$0.45
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
4 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$3.67
$0.29
- NO
Weed rescheduled by March 31?
4 shares @ 95.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$3.53
$0.17
- YES
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
4 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$3.52
$0.14
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
3 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$3.38
$0.14
- NO
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
3 shares @ 90.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.72
$0.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$5.00Mar 3, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$2.47Mar 1, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$3.27Mar 1, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket mindshare hit 90%?$2.32Feb 26, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?$3.24Feb 23, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or below on February 24?$3.55Feb 23, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWeed rescheduled by March 31?$3.36Feb 23, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?$3.38Feb 23, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$3.38Feb 23, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?$3.36Feb 22, 16:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on February 22?$3.75Feb 21, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on February 22?$1.35Feb 21, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?$2.28Feb 21, 09:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$3.29Feb 21, 09:30 UTC
- TRADESELLForeign intervention in Gaza by March 31?$6.27Feb 21, 09:30 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?$6.01Feb 21, 09:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Polymarket mindshare hit 90%?$11.69Feb 21, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on February 22?$0.59Feb 21, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or below on February 21?$0.80Feb 21, 01:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C or higher on February 21?$2.55Feb 21, 01:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 20, 20:32 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 3, 01:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.