Wallet digest

active

Activity score

64/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-11.5K

Realised

$471.65

Win rate

85%

13 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 22?
6440 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026
$0.00
$-6.44
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
1237 shares @ 16.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026
$0.00
$-199.69
WIZARDS
Wizards vs. Knicks
1057 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026
$0.00
$-55.00
CELTICS
Timberwolves vs. Celtics
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
OVER
Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
861 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026
$0.00
$-59.92
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
850 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026
$0.00
$-17.00
YES
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?
833 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
698 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-57.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
687 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-61.20

Recent activity

TRADEBUYFrance leading at halftime?$39.33Jul 18, 20:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$18.76Jul 18, 20:08 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$27.75Jul 18, 20:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$21.96Jul 18, 20:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$80.84Jul 14, 23:04 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$80.99Jul 14, 23:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$50.79Jul 14, 22:59 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$50.64Jul 11, 21:57 UTC
TRADESELLNorway vs. England: Draw at halftime?$51.03Jul 11, 21:56 UTC
TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Draw at halftime?$31.26Jul 11, 21:27 UTC
TRADESELLNorway vs. England: O/U 10.5 Total Corners$31.20Jul 11, 21:25 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$23.79Jul 11, 20:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$26.00Jul 11, 20:15 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$49.47Jul 11, 20:15 UTC
TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: O/U 10.5 Total Corners$79.43Jul 11, 20:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$23.87Jul 11, 20:12 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$52.77Jul 11, 20:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$35.82Jul 11, 19:57 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$3.49Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$50.21Jul 10, 14:49 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

35/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

85% win rate over 13 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity65 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence43 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry35 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk43 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 46
Avg trade size: $47.28
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 10, 11:48 UTC
Last active: Jul 18, 20:10 UTC
Win rate sample: 13 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 02:12:09 UTC·src:Polymarket Data