Agreeable-Birth
0x84c386331355f47057afca0c06c7211f4dbe35d4
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$6.7K
Total PnL
$-183.74
Realised
$-43.27
Win rate
49%
83 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
225 shares @ 93.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$208.03
$-1.50
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
201 shares @ 82.9¢·now 88.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$177.57
$10.89
- NO
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
169 shares @ 92.9¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$157.79
$1.03
- NO
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
143 shares @ 94.0¢·now 98.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$140.23
$6.17
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
136 shares @ 83.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$117.64
$4.72
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
114 shares @ 91.6¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$110.52
$6.07
- NO
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
109 shares @ 92.5¢·now 97.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$106.60
$5.75
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
107 shares @ 92.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$104.11
$5.67
- NO
New pandemic in 2026?
109 shares @ 88.2¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$99.19
$3.04
- YES
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?
113 shares @ 9.7¢·now 86.6¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$97.85
$86.94
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$2.15Jul 29, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$1.30Jul 29, 02:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$2.05Jul 29, 02:31 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)$0.00Jul 29, 01:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$1.43Jul 29, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$0.66Jul 29, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$1.29Jul 29, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$0.73Jul 29, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$2.07Jul 29, 01:31 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$0.08Jul 29, 01:12 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$4.80Jul 29, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Central Bank" during July Press Conference?$1.60Jul 29, 00:42 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$2.30Jul 29, 00:38 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$1.60Jul 28, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$1.05Jul 28, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$1.35Jul 28, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)$18.83Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)$16.90Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)$20.84Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
49% win rate over 83 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
83 closed markets, 49% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $6.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 20:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 83 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.