Pale-Birdwatcher
0x84d7b7a1d571534fbad757dfafdf9e604726298f
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
100
Open notional
$3.0K
Total PnL
$30.94
Realised
$1.2K
Win rate
74%
50 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 100- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
300 shares @ 86.5¢·now 88.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$265.58
$6.50
- NO
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?
277 shares @ 90.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$259.00
$9.69
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-06 House seat?
268 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$250.58
$1.34
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
217 shares @ 91.1¢·now 91.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$197.84
$0.43
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
1749 shares @ 12.4¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$166.19
$-51.24
- YES
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
1242 shares @ 21.7¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$155.20
$-113.96
- NO
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
124 shares @ 60.8¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$87.40
$12.01
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?
1250 shares @ 8.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$68.75
$-31.25
- NO
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?
69 shares @ 97.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$68.49
$1.68
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?
820 shares @ 8.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$65.63
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$2.82Jun 13, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?$46.43Jun 13, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?$150.70Jun 13, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYTaylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?$19.33Jun 13, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYTaylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?$15.78Jun 13, 11:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$6.06Jun 13, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$69.76Jun 13, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYTaylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?$74.93Jun 13, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$5.60Jun 13, 08:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$52.27Jun 13, 08:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$6.90Jun 13, 08:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$47.52Jun 13, 05:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$10.85Jun 13, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$136.83Jun 13, 04:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$10.46Jun 13, 03:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30?$0.00Jun 13, 03:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$3.86Jun 13, 03:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?$51.80Jun 13, 02:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?$3.01Jun 13, 01:27 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$18.11Jun 13, 00:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $34.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 17:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 13:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 50 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.