Pale-Birdwatcher
0x84d7b7a1d571534fbad757dfafdf9e604726298f
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
109
Open notional
$3.7K
Total PnL
$648.73
Realised
$1.3K
Win rate
68%
56 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 109- NO
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?
277 shares @ 90.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$264.53
$15.23
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
273 shares @ 93.4¢·now 93.7¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$255.48
$0.70
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-06 House seat?
268 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$250.58
$1.34
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 29?
176 shares @ 87.4¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$155.74
$1.98
- NO
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
601 shares @ 23.6¢·now 25.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$150.27
$8.29
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
161 shares @ 92.5¢·now 92.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$149.75
$0.48
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
299 shares @ 47.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$140.76
$0.03
- YES
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
1242 shares @ 21.7¢·now 11.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$136.58
$-132.58
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
506 shares @ 24.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$118.84
$-2.41
- NO
Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?
112 shares @ 90.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$103.92
$3.36
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?$0.11Jul 28, 20:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 29?$14.85Jul 28, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 29?$19.80Jul 28, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 29?$0.31Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 29?$0.35Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 29?$25.92Jul 28, 20:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Boeing say "Dividend" during earnings call?$0.00Jul 28, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYFK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Team to Advance$1.54Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$140.53Jul 28, 19:40 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$224.14Jul 28, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLFK Crvena zvezda vs. Larne FC: Team to Advance$1.52Jul 28, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$5.25Jul 28, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$21.02Jul 28, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$4.87Jul 28, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.89Jul 28, 18:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Boeing say "Tariff" during earnings call?$0.00Jul 28, 18:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Boeing say "Airbus" during earnings call?$0.00Jul 28, 18:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Boeing say "Airbus" during earnings call?$0.88Jul 28, 18:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Boeing say "Tariff" during earnings call?$205.00Jul 28, 18:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 29?$38.08Jul 28, 18:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 56 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
56 closed markets, 68% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $22.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 17:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 56 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.