Questionable-Variability
0x84dc2b0bf1ddbfd5f5738933bb728ff1352a1021
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-42.35
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 26?
161 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-3.38
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 7PM ET
156 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.09
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 23?
150 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.55
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 27?
143 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.29
- YES
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 Week of April 13 2026?
132 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-3.05
- YES
Will Hang Seng (HSI) hit 18600 (LOW) in March?
132 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.59
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on January 30?
122 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.93
- UP
XRP Up or Down - January 27, 3AM ET
117 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on April 13?
99 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.58
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 28?
95 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.76
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on July 8?$74.03Jul 8, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on July 8?$72.11Jul 7, 19:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $80 on May 30?$84.46May 30, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on May 30?$82.60May 30, 02:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 23?$78.48May 23, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 23?$0.35May 23, 03:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 23?$75.63May 23, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15?$87.97May 15, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15?$85.24May 14, 20:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 12?$83.25May 7, 08:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 31?$0.00Apr 27, 23:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 21?$3.20Apr 21, 10:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on April 15?$0.00Apr 19, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 Week of April 13 2026?$3.17Apr 17, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on April 15?$3.51Apr 15, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on April 13?$1.70Apr 12, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 12?$16.70Apr 12, 00:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 12?$65.13Apr 12, 00:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 28?$87.10Apr 12, 00:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on January 30?$0.00Apr 1, 05:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $53.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 27, 12:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 8, 16:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.