Blind-Task
0x852c868f7f557b9dc6dbaee0fc5c87d623e72453
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-209.43
Realised
$118.41
Win rate
88%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
11111 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-21.29
- YES
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?
10394 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-26.60
- YES
Will Santa deliver between 7,900,000,000 and 8,000,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?
3044 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-3.61
- YES
Will Santa deliver fewer than 7,900,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?
2777 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-5.21
- YES
Will Santa deliver between 8,000,000,000 and 8,100,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?
2744 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-3.87
- YES
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?
1415 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-109.17
- YES
Will Santa deliver between 8,100,000,000 and 8,200,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-4.27
- YES
Will Santa deliver between 8,300,000,000 and 8,400,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-4.54
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
814 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-19.77
- YES
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 13?
500 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 13, 2025$0.00
$-9.86
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on December 26?$4.23Dec 27, 09:22 UTC
- REDEEMManchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5$0.00Dec 27, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYManchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5$6.71Dec 26, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on December 26?$6.80Dec 26, 17:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on December 26?$8.00Dec 26, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on December 26?$2.75Dec 26, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on December 26?$9.60Dec 26, 17:37 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$0.00Dec 25, 22:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$2.98Dec 25, 22:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$0.80Dec 25, 22:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$14.08Dec 25, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$101.74Dec 25, 22:36 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$75.64Dec 25, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$100.00Dec 25, 22:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$75.98Dec 25, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$90.00Dec 25, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$10.00Dec 25, 22:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$101.83Dec 25, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$100.00Dec 25, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$10.00Dec 25, 21:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $47.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 25, 18:06 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 27, 09:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.