0x8561f5fc2203575986e2f33fe274000d3f02ce01
0x8561f5fc2203575986e2f33fe274000d3f02ce01
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-8.6K
Realised
$-2.9K
Win rate
16%
152 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
687 shares @ 45.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-310.07
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
425 shares @ 46.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-197.66
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET
263 shares @ 46.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-122.96
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
183 shares @ 53.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-96.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
163 shares @ 47.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-77.34
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET
163 shares @ 46.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-76.01
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
130 shares @ 17.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-22.83
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
126 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-55.44
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
105 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-40.95
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
105 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-44.10
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$25.27Aug 13, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$23.62Aug 13, 14:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$25.00Aug 13, 14:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$25.00Aug 13, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$24.30Aug 13, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$23.36Aug 13, 14:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$25.00Aug 13, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$23.13Aug 13, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$24.30Aug 13, 14:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$25.00Aug 13, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$23.36Aug 13, 12:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$25.00Aug 13, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$23.36Aug 13, 10:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$25.00Aug 13, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$23.60Aug 13, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$44.83Jul 18, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$22.51Jul 18, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$19.10Jul 18, 07:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$5.80Jul 18, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$3.95Jul 18, 07:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
67/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
16% win rate over 152 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
152 closed markets, 16% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $12.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 17:20 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 15:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 152 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.