Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-7.9K

Realised

$-2.8K

Win rate

29 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 33

YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 3?
14007 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026
$0.00
$-56.98
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
7150 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026
$0.00
$-1.9K
NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
NO
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1)
2500 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 3?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
1807 shares @ 26.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026
$0.00
$-484.18
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
1599 shares @ 28.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026
$0.00
$-450.30
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
1054 shares @ 28.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026
$0.00
$-299.85
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
959 shares @ 28.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026
$0.00
$-273.33

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$0.00Aug 21, 19:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$33.73Aug 21, 19:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$4.28Aug 21, 19:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$5.29Aug 21, 19:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET$5.35Aug 21, 19:24 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET$5.33Aug 21, 19:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$13.29Jul 1, 12:30 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$13.01Jul 1, 12:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$5.22Jul 1, 12:25 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$4.77Jul 1, 12:24 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$2.12Jul 1, 12:23 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$2.18Jul 1, 12:23 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$0.00Jul 1, 12:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$2.10Jul 1, 12:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$5.35Jul 1, 12:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$5.35Jul 1, 12:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$5.32Jul 1, 12:18 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$0.00Mar 4, 14:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$27.12Mar 4, 10:15 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - March 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$0.87Mar 4, 10:14 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

57/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

3% win rate over 29 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity70 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence97 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry33 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk29 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 38
Avg trade size: $13.84
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Mar 3, 18:59 UTC
Last active: Aug 21, 19:32 UTC
Win rate sample: 29 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:12:23 UTC·src:Polymarket Data