Sweltering-Spell
0x8581f8326abf3013dc57ee49acde3e7469587be6
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$3.46
Total PnL
$-21.26
Realised
$-0.73
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24?
3 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$2.56
$0.56
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?
16 shares @ 6.2¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.27
$-0.73
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 22 2026?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.26
$-0.74
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
91 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.14
$-0.86
- YES
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $336 in June?
8 shares @ 26.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.11
$-1.89
- YES
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $360 in June?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.6¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.06
$-0.94
- YES
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
8 shares @ 25.2¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.04
$-1.96
- YES
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $174 in June?
2 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.02
$-0.98
- NO
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 18?
45 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 23?
28 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24?$2.02Jun 24, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24?$2.60Jun 24, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24?$4.07Jun 23, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24?$3.05Jun 23, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 22 2026?$0.00Jun 23, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicrosoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 23?$3.10Jun 23, 13:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 22 2026?$1.79Jun 23, 13:50 UTC
- TRADESELLApple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 23?$0.58Jun 23, 13:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 22 2026?$2.69Jun 23, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicrosoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 23?$2.06Jun 23, 11:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 22 2026?$2.07Jun 23, 11:51 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 23?$9.12Jun 23, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYApple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 23?$2.06Jun 23, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?$1.04Jun 23, 04:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 22 2026?$1.04Jun 23, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 23?$7.07Jun 23, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 22 2026?$1.04Jun 23, 03:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 22 2026?$2.06Jun 23, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 18?$4.15Jun 18, 13:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?$0.51Jun 18, 13:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $2.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 01:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 05:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.