Sweltering-Spell
0x8581f8326abf3013dc57ee49acde3e7469587be6
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
80
Open notional
$3.30
Total PnL
$-229.90
Realised
$-15.30
Win rate
0%
75 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 80- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $795 Week of August 10 2026?
15 shares @ 13.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$1.08
$-0.92
- YES
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $352.50 Week of August 10 2026?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.86
$-0.14
- YES
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,200 in August?
7 shares @ 30.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.57
$-1.43
- YES
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,260 in August?
10 shares @ 31.2¢·now 5.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.53
$-2.47
- YES
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,320 in August?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 4.6¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.27
$-0.73
- YES
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?
534 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?
255 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $328 in June?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?
229 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $480 in June?
224 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $352.50 Week of August 10 2026?$1.03Aug 11, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $795 Week of August 10 2026?$2.07Aug 11, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $130 in August?$1.47Aug 7, 16:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026?$1.47Aug 7, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicron (MU) Up or Down on August 6?$5.10Aug 6, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 6?$1.02Aug 6, 13:44 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 6?$3.50Aug 6, 13:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYGoogle (GOOGL) Up or Down on August 6?$2.06Aug 6, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 6?$3.07Aug 6, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 6?$1.02Aug 6, 13:07 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 6?$0.64Aug 6, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicron (MU) Up or Down on August 6?$2.06Aug 6, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $930 Week of August 3 2026?$1.03Aug 6, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 6?$1.03Aug 6, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 6?$2.05Aug 6, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $930 Week of August 3 2026?$2.04Aug 5, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $750 Week of August 3 2026?$1.04Aug 5, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLMicron (MU) Up or Down on August 5?$9.24Aug 5, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,260 in August?$1.03Aug 5, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $130 in August?$1.01Aug 5, 15:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 75 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
75 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $2.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 13:59 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 03:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 75 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.