New-Volatility
0x858dc6f289c850b56f2bf7f419ec55b678b824ce
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$4.39
Total PnL
$-3.61
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
18 shares @ 5.5¢·now 6.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.17
$0.17
- NO
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?
1 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$1.11
$0.11
- NO
Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31?
1 shares @ 94.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.06
$0.06
- NO
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
1 shares @ 95.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$1.05
$0.05
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?
3 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 48.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?$1.00Mar 27, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?$1.00Mar 27, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?$1.00Mar 27, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.00Mar 27, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?$1.00Mar 27, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMNuggets vs. Warriors$0.00Mar 26, 00:36 UTC
- REDEEMMiami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula$1.23Mar 26, 00:36 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$0.00Mar 25, 21:13 UTC
- REDEEMMagic vs. Suns$0.00Mar 25, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula$1.00Mar 25, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?$1.00Mar 25, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?$1.00Mar 25, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYRobinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31?$1.00Mar 25, 18:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$3.79Mar 19, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$1.07Mar 15, 05:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?$1.30Mar 15, 05:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$1.00Feb 28, 17:00 UTC
- REDEEMKnicks vs. Bucks$2.01Feb 28, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Bucks$2.00Feb 28, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$2.04Feb 28, 01:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $1.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 20, 23:11 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 27, 00:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.