Polished-Mailman
0x858ed9140cd96b23669cf467dc1f9211a09622b6
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
25
Open notional
$0.13
Total PnL
$-60.74
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
7 shares @ 44.0¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.13
$-2.87
- YES
Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?
8000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-31.99
- YES
Will GPT-5 be released on August 11?
227 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will GPT-5 be released on August 8?
164 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Apple" during the Purple Heart ceremony on August 7?
131 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will GPT-5 be released on August 12?
70 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the US strike Iran next?
63 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Astronomer CEO Andy Byron sue Coldplay?
60 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-1.08
- YES
Will GPT-5 be released on August 9?
48 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?
43 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$3.00Mar 1, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Israel on March 3?$1.00Mar 1, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?$1.00Mar 1, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike Iran next?$1.00Mar 1, 15:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get between 35-40 million views on day 1?$5.26Jan 1, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?$1.00Aug 8, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?$1.00Aug 8, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$1.00Aug 8, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the top AI model on August 31?$1.00Aug 8, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Apple" during the Purple Heart ceremony on August 7?$1.00Aug 7, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-5 be released on August 8?$1.00Aug 7, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-5 be released on August 11?$1.00Aug 7, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 40-45 million views on day 1?$1.00Aug 7, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?$1.00Aug 7, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 35-40 million views on day 1?$1.00Aug 6, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Dollar" 25+ times during his next video?$1.00Aug 6, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 30-35 million views on day 1?$1.00Aug 6, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next MrBeast video be between 20 and 25 min?$1.00Aug 6, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-5 be released on August 12?$1.00Aug 6, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-5 be released on August 8?$1.00Aug 6, 13:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $1.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 2, 19:08 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 1, 20:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".