Alarmed-Fir
0x85ab034af0eaeacbdb73c74120808ff60b2e15f9
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-8.1K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
102051 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.0K
- YES
Will Motoristé get more than 9% of the vote in the Czech election?
4187 shares @ 14.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 3, 2025$0.00
$-589.99
- YES
Will STAČILO! get between 11% and 14% of the vote in the Czech election?
3421 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-183.88
- YES
Will SPOLU get between 17% and 20% of the vote in the Czech election?
2466 shares @ 40.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 3, 2025$0.00
$-1000.00
- NO
Will STAČILO! get less than 5% of the vote in the Czech election?
1361 shares @ 80.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.1K
- YES
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election?
691 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Tyler Robinson charged in Kirk shooting?
667 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 12, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will STAČILO! get between 8% and 11% of the vote in the Czech election?
287 shares @ 34.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Motoristé get between 7% and 9% of the vote in the Czech election?
257 shares @ 38.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 3, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMStarostové (STAN) wins 10% or more of vote in Czech election?$0.00Oct 5, 21:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill ANO get more than 36% of the vote in the Czech election?$113.64Oct 5, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Přísaha get less than 3% of the vote in the Czech election?$1.9KOct 5, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Motoristé get between 3% and 5% of the vote in the Czech election?$2.0KOct 5, 21:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Motoristé get less than 3% of the vote in the Czech election?$207.64Oct 5, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Motoristé get between 3% and 5% of the vote in the Czech election?$151.45Sep 29, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Motoristé get between 3% and 5% of the vote in the Czech election?$1.0KSep 29, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill STAČILO! get less than 5% of the vote in the Czech election?$100.00Sep 29, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill STAČILO! get between 11% and 14% of the vote in the Czech election?$20.00Sep 29, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Motoristé get more than 9% of the vote in the Czech election?$150.00Sep 29, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill STAČILO! get between 11% and 14% of the vote in the Czech election?$0.62Sep 17, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill STAČILO! get between 11% and 14% of the vote in the Czech election?$1.03Sep 16, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill STAČILO! get between 11% and 14% of the vote in the Czech election?$1.04Sep 16, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill STAČILO! get between 11% and 14% of the vote in the Czech election?$4.05Sep 16, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill STAČILO! get between 11% and 14% of the vote in the Czech election?$54.89Sep 16, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill STAČILO! get between 11% and 14% of the vote in the Czech election?$0.90Sep 16, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill STAČILO! get between 11% and 14% of the vote in the Czech election?$1.35Sep 16, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYTyler Robinson charged in Kirk shooting?$10.00Sep 12, 21:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Motoristé get more than 9% of the vote in the Czech election?$400.00Sep 12, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarostové (STAN) wins 10% or more of vote in Czech election?$1000.00Sep 12, 21:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $433.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 8, 06:39 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 5, 21:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.