Virtual-Cheddar
0x85b5359eb2ede6aa8c9c9b0ea01453da667c3c42
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$79.06
Total PnL
$-547.14
Realised
$-0.54
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- YES
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?
19 shares @ 87.5¢·now 88.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$17.22
$0.24
- YES
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?
10 shares @ 93.0¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$10.33
$0.60
- NO
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?
6 shares @ 97.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$6.48
$0.19
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
7 shares @ 66.2¢·now 79.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.25
$0.86
- NO
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?
6 shares @ 34.5¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$4.99
$2.80
- YES
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
9 shares @ 38.8¢·now 38.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$3.38
$-0.07
- YES
Will White House post 180-199 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 20.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.43
$0.96
- YES
Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?
3 shares @ 89.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$2.37
$0.11
- YES
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
2 shares @ 67.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$2.22
$0.72
- YES
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 15.2¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.15
$0.63
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill CZ post 0-19 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$1.01Jul 23, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill TikTok Pro - Events be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?$1.02Jul 23, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?$1.02Jul 22, 13:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill StepFun have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?$1.02Jul 22, 13:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tencent have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.93Jul 22, 11:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no MrBeast video be posted?$1.36Jul 22, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.75 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?$1.02Jul 22, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$1.17Jul 22, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 180-199 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$1.53Jul 22, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CZ post 0-19 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$1.00Jul 22, 10:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026?$1.22Jul 22, 10:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tencent have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026?$1.00Jul 22, 10:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026?$1.04Jul 22, 10:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$1.01Jul 21, 18:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.58Jul 21, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?$1.21Jul 21, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$1.00Jul 21, 02:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$3.24Jul 21, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$1.00Jul 21, 00:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CZ post 0-19 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$1.15Jul 20, 13:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 11:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 10:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.