Sparse-Disposal-Version
0x85ce8455e9185478447c7c963cdb34504b073529
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
126
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-490.11
Realised
$41.18
Win rate
100%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 126- NO
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
405 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
186 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
154 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
83 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
76 shares @ 27.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
65 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
61 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
56 shares @ 21.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$8.95Jul 1, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$15.75Jul 1, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$5.26Jul 1, 02:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$9.42Jul 1, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$5.22Jul 1, 02:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$0.01Jul 1, 01:56 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$25.73Jul 1, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$18.71Jul 1, 01:56 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$12.00Jul 1, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$5.26Jul 1, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$5.24Jul 1, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$20.45Jul 1, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$1.06Jul 1, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$5.28Jul 1, 01:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$11.63Jul 1, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$10.10Jul 1, 01:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$5.43Jul 1, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$5.20Jul 1, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$5.13Jul 1, 01:42 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.41Jul 1, 01:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $8.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 00:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 02:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.