Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-159.76

Realised

$-8.29

Win rate

33 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 33

NO
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
200 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-7.25
NO
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20?
141 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-11.07
NO
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?
120 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-4.11
YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 21?
105 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026
$0.00
$-3.35
NO
Will Erling Haaland score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026
$0.00
$-2.60
YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20?
60 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-0.17
NO
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 21?
50 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026
$0.00
$-24.00
YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20?
50 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
NO
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
50 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026
$0.00
$-0.70
YES
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30?
50 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-19.50

Recent activity

REWARD$497.63Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$7.09Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 20?$0.12Jun 26, 20:47 UTC
REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 21?$0.43Jun 26, 20:47 UTC
REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21?$0.56Jun 26, 20:47 UTC
REWARD$358.06Jun 23, 22:24 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$11.43Jun 23, 14:55 UTC
REWARD$2.41Jun 23, 00:15 UTC
REWARD$217.95Jun 23, 00:00 UTC
TRADESELLWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 22?$0.02Jun 22, 18:08 UTC
TRADESELLNVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 22?$0.38Jun 22, 18:08 UTC
TRADESELLWill Rafael Leao join Arsenal?$0.00Jun 22, 18:07 UTC
TRADESELLMicrosoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 22?$0.00Jun 22, 18:07 UTC
TRADESELLGoogle (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 22?$0.00Jun 22, 18:07 UTC
TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 22?$0.01Jun 22, 18:07 UTC
TRADESELLNetflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 22?$0.04Jun 22, 18:07 UTC
TRADESELLWill Starmer say "Waiting List" during the next PMQ?$0.05Jun 22, 18:07 UTC
TRADESELLWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$0.05Jun 22, 18:07 UTC
TRADESELLWill Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30?$0.06Jun 22, 18:07 UTC
TRADESELLWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 22?$0.03Jun 22, 18:07 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

58/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

3% win rate over 33 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 21/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

33 closed markets, 3% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry21 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk21 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $0.30
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 22, 18:07 UTC
Last active: Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
Win rate sample: 33 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 07:11:10 UTC·src:Polymarket Data