0x85d538a6bc647b082c370aae7f733a607ab36b2b
0x85d538a6bc647b082c370aae7f733a607ab36b2b
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$124.15
Total PnL
$-76.77
Realised
$-16.12
Win rate
0%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- YES
Will Algeria be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?
50 shares @ 71.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$28.25
$-7.25
- NO
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
30 shares @ 73.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$21.77
$-0.15
- YES
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
50 shares @ 45.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$18.25
$-4.25
- YES
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B?
30 shares @ 35.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$8.55
$-1.95
- NO
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $27.5B?
42 shares @ 22.2¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$6.94
$-2.39
- NO
Will Leon Goretzka join Chicago Fire?
20 shares @ 51.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$5.50
$-4.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16?
5 shares @ 18.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$4.99
$4.09
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?
5 shares @ 80.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$3.90
$0.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18?
4 shares @ 78.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$3.60
$0.76
- YES
Will Marcus Rashford join AC Milan?
20 shares @ 31.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$3.00
$-3.20
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$9.76Jun 18, 11:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?$4.69Jun 18, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leon Goretzka join Chicago Fire?$10.25Jun 18, 11:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.15Jun 18, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael Leao join Bayern Munich?$0.14Jun 18, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?$5.63Jun 18, 11:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.47Jun 18, 11:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rafael Leao join Bayern Munich?$0.56Jun 18, 11:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elliot Anderson join Chelsea?$1.75Jun 18, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elliot Anderson join Chelsea?$2.01Jun 18, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael Leao join Bayern Munich?$0.66Jun 18, 11:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by less than 5%?$0.63Jun 18, 11:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by less than 5%?$2.03Jun 18, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by less than 5%?$2.81Jun 18, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jack Grealish join Tottenham?$0.66Jun 18, 11:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elliot Anderson stay at Nottingham Forest?$7.46Jun 18, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elliot Anderson stay at Nottingham Forest?$7.84Jun 18, 11:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Joao Cancelo stay at Al-Hilal?$15.14Jun 18, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Joao Cancelo stay at Al-Hilal?$16.18Jun 18, 11:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bradley Barcola join Liverpool?$15.90Jun 18, 10:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $8.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 09:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 11:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.