Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-5.5K

Realised

$-874.60

Win rate

64 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 64

UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
659 shares @ 54.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-360.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
575 shares @ 52.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
492 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-266.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
438 shares @ 41.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-180.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
418 shares @ 50.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-210.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
403 shares @ 29.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-120.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
398 shares @ 37.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-150.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
334 shares @ 35.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-120.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
320 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-160.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
313 shares @ 38.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-120.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$1.17Aug 9, 20:16 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.09Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$0.00Jul 24, 20:51 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$39.42Jul 24, 20:43 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$26.01Jul 24, 20:41 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$64.81Jul 24, 20:41 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$39.12Jul 24, 20:36 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$16.91Jul 24, 20:32 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$18.62Jul 24, 20:14 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$16.50Jul 24, 20:14 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$58.82Jul 24, 20:11 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$9.00Jul 24, 20:10 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$31.03Jul 24, 19:58 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$16.73Jul 24, 19:55 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$79.14Jul 24, 19:55 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$41.40Jul 24, 19:49 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$31.50Jul 24, 19:46 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$26.03Jul 24, 19:41 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$97.08Jul 24, 19:39 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$24.07Jul 24, 19:36 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

65/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 64 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

64 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity54 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry84 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk32 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 46
Avg trade size: $30.14
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 17, 18:11 UTC
Last active: Aug 9, 20:16 UTC
Win rate sample: 64 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:05:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data