Visible-Eleventh
0x85dfe68799c81169482aad52aabd3d899404fb48
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$519.90
Total PnL
$-167.57
Realised
$129.48
Win rate
60%
45 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31?
20 shares @ 86.5¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.79
$2.49
- NO
Will PPI YoY be 5.4% in July?
20 shares @ 93.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$19.38
$0.78
- NO
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0%?
20 shares @ 91.8¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$18.91
$0.55
- NO
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in July?
20 shares @ 92.4¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$18.71
$0.23
- NO
Will Trump say "Whale" in July?
20 shares @ 79.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$18.30
$2.50
- NO
Will voter turnout be less than 47% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
20 shares @ 92.2¢·now 90.1¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$18.02
$-0.42
- NO
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?
20 shares @ 92.0¢·now 88.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.72
$-0.68
- NO
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in July?
20 shares @ 55.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$17.50
$6.50
- NO
Will South African inflation be between 3.8% and 4.1% in 2026?
20 shares @ 86.9¢·now 82.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2027$16.39
$-0.99
- NO
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in July?
20 shares @ 81.3¢·now 81.7¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$16.34
$0.08
Recent activity
- MERGEWill Procter & Gamble say "Currency" during earnings call?$1.03Jul 29, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Procter & Gamble say "Currency" during earnings call?$17.60Jul 29, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lana Del Rey release a new album by December 31?$1.58Jul 29, 02:52 UTC
- MERGEWill John Curtis vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?$20.00Jul 28, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Curtis vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?$3.60Jul 28, 22:41 UTC
- MERGEWill Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$7.36Jul 28, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$2.28Jul 28, 20:50 UTC
- MERGEWill Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$12.64Jul 28, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$3.92Jul 28, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?$0.13Jul 28, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?$0.64Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- MERGEWill Trump say "Chicken" in July?$20.00Jul 28, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Chicken" in July?$1.80Jul 28, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Troy Rasband earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$0.06Jul 28, 17:38 UTC
- MERGEWill the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30?$12.00Jul 28, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30?$3.14Jul 28, 17:20 UTC
- MERGEWill the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30?$8.00Jul 28, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30?$2.10Jul 28, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in July?$0.00Jul 28, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in July?$2.06Jul 28, 15:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
76/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 45 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
45 closed markets, 60% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $3.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 15:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 04:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 45 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.