Impossible-Criteria
0x85e34fdaf32643f8386232250c5facf1b1489945
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?
1108 shares @ 45.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-500.00
- YES
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
878 shares @ 56.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-500.00
- NO
US government shutdown Saturday?
610 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-500.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$640.27Jan 28, 12:21 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?$291.03Jan 23, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?$48.00Jan 20, 00:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?$177.04Jan 20, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$500.00Jan 19, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?$500.00Jan 19, 20:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$535.55Jan 19, 20:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeting?$289.10Jan 19, 20:48 UTC
- TRADESELLHan Duck-soo in jail by January 31?$400.26Jan 19, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYHan Duck-soo in jail by January 31?$446.00Jan 19, 20:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?$255.56Jan 19, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeting?$300.00Jan 19, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?$250.00Jan 19, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$500.00Jan 19, 13:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$609.14Jan 19, 10:06 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?$631.17Jan 17, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?$486.00Jan 12, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$500.00Jan 12, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$486.00Jan 10, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$500.00Jan 10, 18:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $406.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 10, 18:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 28, 12:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.