Wallet digest

active

Activity score

39/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

121

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-50.3K

Realised

$-2.5K

Win rate

24%

17 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 121

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
7207 shares @ 61.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025
$0.00
$-4.4K
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 9AM ET
7188 shares @ 81.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025
$0.00
$-5.9K
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
5359 shares @ 91.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2025
$0.00
$-4.9K
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
4083 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2025
$0.00
$-2.0K
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
2676 shares @ 69.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026
$0.00
$-1.9K
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
2280 shares @ 64.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026
$0.00
$-1.5K
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
2158 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026
$0.00
$-115.42
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
1966 shares @ 34.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026
$0.00
$-672.69
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
1888 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025
$0.00
$-1000.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
1820 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2025
$0.00
$-100.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$5.34Jun 21, 13:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$4.48Jun 21, 07:04 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$4.73Jun 21, 05:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$2.77Jun 21, 05:18 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$5.28Jun 19, 19:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$11.87Jun 19, 06:47 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$9.77Jun 19, 06:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$8.67Jun 19, 06:36 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$10.57May 10, 00:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$2.99May 9, 07:57 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$0.41May 9, 07:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$3.70May 9, 07:21 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$3.69May 9, 07:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$8.53May 9, 07:00 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$8.74May 9, 06:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$7.84May 9, 06:57 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$7.82May 9, 06:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$6.01May 9, 06:50 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$6.02May 9, 06:49 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$5.91May 9, 06:48 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

45/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

24% win rate over 17 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence57 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry64 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk40 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 49
Avg trade size: $16.96
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 9, 05:39 UTC
Last active: Jun 21, 13:02 UTC
Win rate sample: 17 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:56:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data