Wallet digest

active

Activity score

68/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

123

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-202.54

Realised

$0.69

Win rate

94%

18 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 123

DOWN
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET
143 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
NO
Bitcoin above 73,400 on May 23, 4AM ET?
120 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-1.20
NO
Bitcoin above 73,800 on May 23, 4AM ET?
101 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-1.01
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET
93 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
NO
Bitcoin above 71,800 on May 28, 11AM ET?
60 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-1.20
NO
Bitcoin above 78,800 on May 16, 1AM ET?
60 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
NO
Bitcoin above 75,800 on May 26, 10AM ET?
60 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-1.20
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2AM ET
59 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026
$0.00
$-2.38
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
50 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET
38 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLDogecoin Up or Down - July 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$3.59Jul 5, 09:36 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$3.25Jul 5, 09:22 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$3.51Jul 5, 04:32 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$3.31Jul 5, 04:21 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$53.72Jul 5, 01:36 UTC
TRADESELLBNB Up or Down - July 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$1.90Jul 5, 01:36 UTC
TRADESELLDogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$3.73Jul 5, 01:18 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$8.41Jul 5, 01:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$1.73Jul 5, 01:17 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$3.48Jul 5, 01:16 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$54.86Jul 5, 00:57 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$2.51Jul 5, 00:02 UTC
TRADESELLBNB Up or Down - July 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$3.39Jul 4, 23:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$2.03Jul 4, 23:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$3.16Jul 4, 23:15 UTC
TRADESELLBNB Up or Down - July 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$6.96Jul 4, 22:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$40.18Jul 4, 20:53 UTC
TRADESELLBNB Up or Down - July 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$10.37Jul 4, 19:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$9.66Jul 4, 19:36 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - July 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$77.90Jul 4, 15:10 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

42/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

94% win rate over 18 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity70 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence60 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry35 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk38 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 40
Avg trade size: $9.68
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 30, 00:29 UTC
Last active: Jul 5, 09:36 UTC
Win rate sample: 18 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 12:24:18 UTC·src:Polymarket Data