Extroverted-Engineer
0x863176c50b2039c67811cdf0a28da82c854f9a73
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$51.0K
Total PnL
$-62.3K
Realised
$2.8K
Win rate
25%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
31447 shares @ 40.8¢·now 49.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.6K
$2.7K
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
15746 shares @ 82.2¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.3K
$1.4K
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
13675 shares @ 69.1¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.6K
$3.2K
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
9610 shares @ 72.9¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$5.3K
$-1.7K
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?
19824 shares @ 59.8¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.1K
$-8.8K
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
40000 shares @ 60.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-24.2K
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
32469 shares @ 56.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-18.5K
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
16377 shares @ 74.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-12.1K
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?
8892 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-939.31
- YES
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?
3779 shares @ 52.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.0K
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.13Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.12Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.11Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$1.11Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$1.12Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.10Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.09Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.09Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.09Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.09Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$868.77Jul 19, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$83.79Jul 19, 17:56 UTC
- YIELD$1.08Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$1.08Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$1.09Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.09Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.09Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.09Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.10Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$1.10Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
6 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 6
- Avg trade size
- $161.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.