Exotic-Retrospective
0x8635fe243be8ce103a75fa9a450690bc125a16d1
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-268.64
Realised
$50.99
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
1600 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-3.20
- NO
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?
801 shares @ 18.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-146.83
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?
518 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-32.91
- YES
Tucker Carlson + Putin interview over 300 million views on X in first 24 hours?
422 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2024$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
200 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-5.60
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
200 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-12.20
- YES
Will US attack Iran by February 15?
171 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2024$0.00
$-6.48
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get 110 million or more views on week 1?
100 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will Trump and Zelenskyy hug on Monday?
100 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?
69 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-34.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$3.42Oct 9, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$6.30Oct 5, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?$0.66Sep 29, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?$0.30Sep 29, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?$0.24Sep 29, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?$0.60Sep 29, 17:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?$7.99Sep 29, 17:03 UTC
- SPLITWill Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?$8.00Sep 23, 05:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast say "Later in this video" during his next video?$2.84Sep 23, 05:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast say "Later in this video" during his next video?$3.15Sep 23, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?$9.00Sep 23, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get 110 million or more views on week 1?$14.40Sep 23, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get 110 million or more views on week 1?$3.60Sep 23, 01:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast say "Later in this video" during his next video?$9.55Sep 22, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?$12.11Sep 22, 21:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon tweet between 1000 and 1049 times September 1–30?$5.60Sep 22, 21:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon tweet between 950 and 999 times September 1–30?$22.99Sep 22, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?$10.00Sep 22, 09:44 UTC
- TRADESELLFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$7.50Sep 22, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet between 1000 and 1049 times September 1–30?$9.77Sep 22, 08:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $9.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 19, 04:19 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 9, 23:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".