Fat-Innocent
0x863aee31e4b2c84f2ecc7efe85ccafefc3597b44
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$1.09
Total PnL
$-4.46
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Trump say "Israel" at debate?
1 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 10, 2024$1.09
$0.09
- YES
Will Kamala say "convicted felon" at debate?
3 shares @ 58.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 10, 2024$0.00
$-1.96
- YES
Kamala positive favorability by Sunday?
3 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 8, 2024$0.00
$-0.60
- YES
Will Trump say "border" 15 or more times at debate?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 10, 2024$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
1 shares @ 71.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Kamala say "convicted felon" at debate?$0.96Sep 10, 16:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kamala say "unrealized" at debate?$0.95Sep 10, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYKamala Harris wins the popular vote?$0.99Sep 8, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYKamala positive favorability by Sunday?$0.60Sep 8, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kamala say "convicted felon" at debate?$1.00Sep 8, 04:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kamala say "unrealized" at debate?$1.00Sep 8, 04:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Israel" at debate?$1.00Sep 8, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "border" 15 or more times at debate?$1.00Sep 8, 04:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $0.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 8, 04:16 UTC
- Last active
- Sep 10, 16:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".