Chilly-Shift
0x8645e8e4074063e61c271b1e8a8e36448ea6c507
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
1
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-63.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Iraq before December?$63.00Nov 20, 13:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Biden resign in November?$62.46Nov 20, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Biden resign in November?$62.78Nov 9, 07:18 UTC
- REDEEMIran strike on Israel by Nov 8?$63.32Nov 9, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran strike on Israel by Nov 8?$51.66Nov 8, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran strike on Israel by Nov 8?$10.26Nov 8, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELL2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154$8.06Nov 8, 08:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill a candidate from another party win Vermont US Senate Election?$7.78Nov 7, 08:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill a Democrat win Washington Governor Election?$10.63Nov 7, 08:18 UTC
- TRADESELL2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34$10.62Nov 6, 12:22 UTC
- TRADESELL2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14$10.62Nov 6, 12:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill George W. Bush endorse Kamala Harris?$11.49Nov 6, 12:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a candidate from another party win Vermont US Senate Election?$7.70Nov 5, 16:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill another player be the biggest winner of The House Poker Night?$0.00Nov 5, 00:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill someone else be the biggest loser of The House Poker Night? $10.41Nov 5, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George W. Bush endorse Kamala Harris?$11.26Nov 4, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during North Carolina rally on Nov 3?$10.41Nov 4, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during North Carolina rally on Nov 3?$10.21Nov 3, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill someone else be the biggest loser of The House Poker Night? $10.10Nov 3, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another player be the biggest winner of The House Poker Night?$10.10Nov 3, 07:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $16.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 30, 14:07 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 20, 13:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.