0x865cc4a5c9268680720dc16ea46595829d553f0b
0x865cc4a5c9268680720dc16ea46595829d553f0b
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$8.86
Total PnL
$-234.44
Realised
$31.39
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
6 shares @ 86.0¢·now 93.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.63
$0.47
- YES
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
12 shares @ 16.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$2.16
$0.29
- YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
20 shares @ 7.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.07
$-0.33
- CARUANA
Speed Chess QF: Carlsen vs Caruana
233 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-13.99
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?
200 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will Daniil Dubov win the 2025 FIDE World Cup?
154 shares @ 13.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 27, 2025$0.00
$-20.13
- NO
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
112 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-49.35
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 11?
100 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 11, 2025$0.00
$-3.70
- YES
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?
68 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.00
$-2.64
- KEYMER
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Andrey Esipenko vs Vincent Keymer (Advances)
57 shares @ 66.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 13, 2025$0.00
$-38.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?$49.35Apr 1, 18:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$49.36Apr 1, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$1.53Feb 28, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?$14.00Feb 21, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$51.60Jan 8, 22:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Levon Aronian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?$20.00Dec 12, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Levon Aronian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?$12.40Dec 11, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vincent Keymer win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?$2.64Dec 11, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYNine-Darter at the PDC World Darts Championship?$13.60Dec 9, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.87Dec 8, 12:38 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3)$20.00Dec 8, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3)$10.00Dec 5, 18:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bulgaria win on 2025-11-18?$20.00Nov 22, 11:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.40Nov 18, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2025-11-18?$3.40Nov 18, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bulgaria win on 2025-11-18?$14.00Nov 18, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYFIDE World Cup 2025 Quarterfinals - Yi vs Erigaisi (Advances)$14.00Nov 18, 12:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpeed Chess QF: Nakamura vs So$1.00Nov 17, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Italy vs. Norway end in a draw?$21.44Nov 16, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Italy vs. Norway end in a draw?$9.98Nov 16, 18:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $16.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 12, 14:02 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 1, 18:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".