Dismal-Hatchling
0x86625e31b6b82a8d976f84fe21ebb4ffba610731
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-299.30
Realised
$71.63
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Will José Antonio Kast and Johannes Kaiser advance to the runoff?
683 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Kast win by 5% to 10%?
465 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-28.66
- YES
Will Kast win by less than 5%?
441 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.96
- JAZZ
Jazz vs. Clippers
333 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Sergio Fajardo place 3rd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
258 shares @ 11.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-29.82
- NO
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?
250 shares @ 30.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025$0.00
$-76.00
- YES
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 2% and 3%?
250 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-8.96
- YES
Will Kast win by 10% to 15%?
155 shares @ 18.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-28.30
- YES
Will Jara win by less than 5%?
144 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.96
- YES
Will Jeannette Jara and Evelyn Matthei advance to the runoff?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?$10.73Jul 10, 20:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?$25.00Jul 10, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Belgium: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$31.11Jul 10, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?$87.44Jul 10, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium win on 2026-07-10?$7.24Jul 10, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium win on 2026-07-10?$5.49Jul 10, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France vs. Morocco end in a draw?$85.32Jul 9, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. Morocco end in a draw?$204.18Jul 9, 21:14 UTC
- REDEEMSwitzerland vs. Colombia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$0.46Jul 9, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morocco win on 2026-07-09?$15.39Jul 9, 18:56 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.84Jul 8, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLSwitzerland vs. Colombia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$205.29Jul 7, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLSwitzerland vs. Colombia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$80.37Jul 7, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLSwitzerland vs. Colombia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$1.38Jul 7, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLSwitzerland vs. Colombia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$90.00Jul 7, 22:33 UTC
- TRADESELLSwitzerland vs. Colombia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$75.00Jul 7, 22:23 UTC
- TRADESELLSwitzerland vs. Colombia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$73.00Jul 7, 22:22 UTC
- TRADESELLSwitzerland vs. Colombia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$284.00Jul 7, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwitzerland vs. Colombia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$609.67Jul 7, 21:54 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Colombia?$1.17Jul 7, 21:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $71.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 21:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 20:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.