Reliable-Nightlight
0x86653d7be6190dadbe5df3a1ed3c94288f9b1b75
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
2
Open notional
$280.86
Total PnL
$-809.86
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill CZ post 200+ posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?$280.73Aug 5, 08:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$231.93Aug 3, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$231.71Aug 1, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethena reach $0.28 in July?$131.15Aug 1, 04:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill XRP reach $3.00 in July?$130.00Aug 1, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethena reach $0.28 in July?$131.01Jul 25, 00:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $3.00 in July?$129.88Jul 25, 00:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?$6.00Jul 24, 20:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix (NFLX) close at $20-$30 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?$100.00Jul 24, 20:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?$156.00Jul 24, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix (NFLX) close at $20-$30 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?$99.90Jul 18, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?$155.85Jul 18, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?$5.99Jul 18, 09:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX (SPCX) close at >$170 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 13 – Jul 17?$100.00Jul 17, 20:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of July 13 above $7.50?$11.00Jul 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX (SPCX) finish week of July 13 above $175?$100.00Jul 17, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of July 13 above $185?$51.96Jul 17, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of July 13 above $185?$51.46Jul 16, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of July 13 above $7.50?$10.99Jul 16, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX (SPCX) close at >$170 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 13 – Jul 17?$99.81Jul 16, 06:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $79.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 05:51 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 08:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.