Squeaky-Alpaca
0x866ac6b0aa811f5e62564b6148efdbbaa0f6db17
Wallet digest
Activity score
22/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
69
Open notional
$2.91
Total PnL
$-542.92
Realised
$-145.28
Win rate
4%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 69- YES
Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?
217 shares @ 6.3¢·now 1.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.82
$-10.90
- YES
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?
2 shares @ 9.9¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.07
$-0.08
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?
3 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.01
$-0.14
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?
23 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.01
$-0.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 28?
141 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-7.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or below on April 2?
133 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-7.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on March 28?
132 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-6.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 27?
131 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-7.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 29?
130 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-7.77
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on April 2?
121 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.90
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Lille OSC win on 2026-03-01?$5.00May 3, 02:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 2?$9.76May 3, 02:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Torino FC win on 2026-03-01?$11.94May 3, 02:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 28?$25.48May 3, 02:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on March 29?$32.00May 3, 02:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 27?$42.00May 3, 02:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lille OSC win on 2026-03-01?$0.00May 3, 01:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 2?$0.00May 3, 01:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Torino FC win on 2026-03-01?$0.00May 3, 01:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 28?$0.00May 3, 01:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on March 29?$0.00May 3, 01:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 27?$0.00May 3, 01:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lille OSC win on 2026-03-01?$0.00May 2, 01:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 2?$0.00May 2, 01:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Torino FC win on 2026-03-01?$0.00May 2, 01:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 28?$0.00May 2, 01:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on March 29?$0.00May 2, 01:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 27?$0.00May 2, 01:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lille OSC win on 2026-03-01?$0.00May 1, 01:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 2?$0.00May 1, 01:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 26, 01:18 UTC
- Last active
- May 3, 02:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.