Wallet digest

profitable

Activity score

90/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$75.64

Total PnL

$1.17

Realised

$34.88

Win rate

65%

17 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 43

NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on July 22?
12 shares @ 78.2¢·now 82.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$10.16
$0.47
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on July 22?
8 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$8.00
$0.05
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on July 22?
8 shares @ 93.4¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$7.91
$0.44
NO
Will XRP reach $1.20 on July 22?
8 shares @ 89.5¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$7.90
$0.74
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on July 22?
8 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$7.50
$0.00
NO
Will Solana reach $80 on July 22?
8 shares @ 79.4¢·now 97.4¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$7.33
$1.36
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on July 22?
6 shares @ 93.5¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$5.93
$0.32
UP
Solana Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
8 shares @ 67.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$5.16
$-0.20
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
8 shares @ 53.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$4.80
$0.56
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
8 shares @ 52.0¢·now 49.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$3.92
$-0.24

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,900 on July 22?$1.28Jul 22, 20:53 UTC
MERGEWill Ethereum dip to $1,900 on July 22?$18.00Jul 22, 20:46 UTC
MERGEWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on July 22?$16.00Jul 22, 20:46 UTC
MERGEWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 22?$15.00Jul 22, 20:46 UTC
MERGEWill XRP dip to $1.10 on July 22?$8.00Jul 22, 20:46 UTC
MERGEWill Solana reach $80 on July 22?$8.00Jul 22, 20:46 UTC
MERGEWill Ethereum reach $2,000 on July 22?$8.00Jul 22, 20:46 UTC
TRADEBUYWill XRP dip to $1.10 on July 22?$0.02Jul 22, 20:35 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$5.36Jul 22, 20:32 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$4.24Jul 22, 20:12 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,900 on July 22?$5.92Jul 22, 20:06 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$2.45Jul 22, 20:02 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$4.95Jul 22, 20:00 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$2.27Jul 22, 20:00 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$24.00Jul 22, 20:00 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - July 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$8.00Jul 22, 20:00 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$3.85Jul 22, 20:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$4.16Jul 22, 20:00 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$0.16Jul 22, 19:43 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on July 22?$0.96Jul 22, 19:26 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

40/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

65% win rate over 17 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity70 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence57 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry28 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk38 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 38
Avg trade size: $2.96
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 22, 16:46 UTC
Last active: Jul 22, 20:53 UTC
Win rate sample: 17 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:07:20 UTC·src:Polymarket Data