Essential-Bend
0x86766e28f3bdcad6e0a96505c2c457f449fa79ab
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-204.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?
4178 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?
833 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?
323 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30?
317 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31?
253 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025?
175 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-21.00
- YES
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?
157 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will any AI score ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2 by November 3?
129 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?
68 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?
52 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28?$5.00Oct 28, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?$5.00Oct 28, 13:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the top AI model on December 31?$34.26Oct 17, 21:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? $21.00Sep 25, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30?$20.00Sep 25, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the top AI model on December 31?$40.00Sep 25, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model on October 31?$30.00Sep 25, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?$1.00Sep 25, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the top AI model on September 30?$10.00Sep 25, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI score ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2 by November 3?$5.00Sep 25, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by September 30?$1.00Sep 25, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?$1.00Sep 25, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?$5.00Sep 25, 11:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the top AI model on September 30?$100.00Sep 25, 11:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $19.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 25, 11:34 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 28, 14:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".