Improbable-Principal
0x869a7f5eef0032bd5b0f11de5726699b3245bb9c
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$211.00
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9?
3043 shares @ 39.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2025$0.00
$-1.2K
- NO
India military action against Pakistan before June?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 12?
158 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
114 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2025$0.00
$-32.00
- YES
Trump bans China from buying US farmland?
74 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday?
24 shares @ 41.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 19?
11 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Trump announce withdrawal from Syria in first 100 days?
8 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 16?$0.06Dec 16, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 16?$1.00Dec 16, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 16?$1.00Dec 16, 10:25 UTC
- TRADESELLUS national Solana reserve in 2025?$1.50Aug 22, 06:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next James Bond be British?$1.97Aug 22, 06:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS national Ethereum reserve in 2025?$2.12Aug 22, 06:26 UTC
- REDEEMAnother India military strike on Pakistan by Friday?$37.04May 20, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother India military strike on Pakistan by Friday?$10.00May 7, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYPakistan military strike on India by Friday?$5.00May 7, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYPakistan military strike on India by Friday?$5.00May 6, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIndia military action against Pakistan before June?$1.00May 6, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLIndia military action against Pakistan before June?$140.86May 6, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIndia military action against Pakistan before June?$100.00May 1, 12:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?$0.00Apr 30, 21:39 UTC
- REDEEMBonnie Blue Baby: Boy or Girl?$2.00Apr 30, 21:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on April 25?$4.72Apr 25, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on April 25?$100.00Apr 24, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on April 24?$64.00Apr 24, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on April 24?$41.00Apr 23, 22:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on April 20?$6.99Apr 20, 07:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $138.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 8, 22:01 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 16, 15:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.