Prudent-Knifeedge
0x86b445b0e97928412d71da64af66c2221d7265ce
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-26.07
Realised
$-9.48
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will Jagmeet Singh be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Coalition win by 10–19 seats?
205 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2025$0.00
$-0.61
- YES
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.29
- NO
Will Jagmeet Singh lose his seat?
144 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-6.33
- YES
Will the Coalition win by 20–29 seats?
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2025$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National majority?
100 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2025$0.00
$-0.76
- YES
Will NDP win between 21 and 25 seats in the next Canadian Election?
100 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win 75 or more seats?
32 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2025$0.00
$-0.29
- YES
Will Republicans control 219 seats in the House after the election?
30 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2024$0.00
$-0.36
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Coalition win by 20–29 seats?$0.00May 2, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National majority?$0.14May 2, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Coalition win by 20–29 seats?$0.02May 2, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Coalition win by 20–29 seats?$0.02May 2, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Australian Labor Party win less than 65 seats?$0.13May 2, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Coalition win by 20–29 seats?$0.06May 2, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National majority?$0.35May 2, 19:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberal–National Coalition win 75 or more seats?$0.02May 2, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National majority?$0.27May 2, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberal–National Coalition win 75 or more seats?$0.18May 2, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberal–National Coalition win 75 or more seats?$0.09May 2, 18:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill India invade Pakistan before July?$0.60May 2, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Coalition win by 10–19 seats?$0.61May 2, 17:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill India invade Pakistan before July?$1.20May 2, 17:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NDP win between 26 and 30 seats in the next Canadian Election?$0.10Apr 29, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill India invade Pakistan before July?$1.15Apr 29, 11:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jagmeet Singh lose his seat?$0.12Apr 29, 10:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NDP win 31 or more seats in the next Canadian Election?$0.24Apr 29, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jagmeet Singh lose his seat?$0.58Apr 29, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jagmeet Singh lose his seat?$0.50Apr 29, 05:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 22, 16:33 UTC
- Last active
- May 2, 23:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.