0x86c8346d9d9d7bb3a4d592e8da70703c6d08547b
0x86c8346d9d9d7bb3a4d592e8da70703c6d08547b
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.2K
Realised
$-127.69
Win rate
37%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
3565 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?
1249 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-52.00
- YES
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?
1057 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-56.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
700 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET
645 shares @ 16.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-106.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
580 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-27.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
555 shares @ 16.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-91.00
- YES
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?
523 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-47.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
504 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-27.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
500 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$4.47Jul 18, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$1.06Jul 18, 21:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$5.53Jul 18, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$3.73Jul 18, 21:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score AND France vs. England: O/U 3.5$33.00Jul 18, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-18?$5.24Jul 18, 21:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. England end in a draw?$4.39Jul 18, 21:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND France vs. England: 1st Half O/U 2.5$24.99Jul 18, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$4.21Jul 17, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$5.17Jul 17, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$7.42Jul 17, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$51.85Jul 17, 05:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$4.36Jul 17, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$7.43Jul 17, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$15.85Jul 17, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$7.43Jul 17, 05:41 UTC
- REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - July 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$0.01Jul 17, 05:35 UTC
- TRADESELLHyperliquid Up or Down - July 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$35.08Jul 17, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$15.40Jul 17, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$15.61Jul 17, 05:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
37% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $11.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 00:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 22:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.