Webbed-Sombrero
0x86d3722904ff990e44f1f3089a7948535538da78
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
83
Open notional
$69.29
Total PnL
$-880.06
Realised
$65.43
Win rate
48%
44 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 83- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 30?
49 shares @ 47.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$22.99
$-0.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 29?
23 shares @ 19.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$22.67
$18.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 30?
31 shares @ 34.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$10.39
$-0.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 30?
47 shares @ 15.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$6.78
$-0.23
- YES
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
61 shares @ 5.5¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.39
$3.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 29?
95 shares @ 59.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.05
$-56.62
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 29?
33 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.02
$-0.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on July 18?
1053 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-4.78
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 21?
769 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.98
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on July 17?
583 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-14.26
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 30?$10.89Jul 29, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 30?$3.04Jul 29, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 30?$0.78Jul 29, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 30?$20.81Jul 29, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 30?$6.53Jul 29, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 29?$0.04Jul 29, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 29?$7.74Jul 29, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 29?$0.87Jul 29, 19:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 29?$0.11Jul 29, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 29?$2.23Jul 29, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 29?$0.17Jul 29, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 29?$41.79Jul 29, 18:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 29?$22.76Jul 29, 18:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 29?$1.89Jul 29, 18:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 29?$0.86Jul 29, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 29?$0.86Jul 29, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 29?$1.95Jul 29, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 29?$13.26Jul 29, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 29?$0.40Jul 29, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 29?$0.40Jul 29, 09:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
48% win rate over 44 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
44 closed markets, 48% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $4.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 19:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 21:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 44 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.