Wallet digest

active

Activity score

41/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$200.52

Total PnL

$-289.74

Realised

$-16.95

Win rate

3 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 11

NO
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
161 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$159.57
$0.88
NO
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
15 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$14.63
$0.10
NO
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
12 shares @ 98.5¢·now 98.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$11.67
$-0.01
NO
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
11 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$10.58
$0.09
YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
14 shares @ 6.9¢·now 28.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$4.07
$3.07
YES
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30?
525 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025
$0.00
$-262.50
NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
517 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025
$0.00
$-9.82
SEIDEL
Jiangxi Open: Ella Seidel vs Tamara Korpatsch
20 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2025
$0.00
$-1.60
UP
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on October 29?
2 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on October 29?
2 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

YIELD$0.02Apr 1, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 31, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 30, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 29, 00:23 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 28, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.01Mar 27, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 26, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 25, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 24, 00:29 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 23, 00:23 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 22, 00:56 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 21, 01:00 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 20, 00:38 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 19, 00:19 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 18, 00:39 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 17, 00:23 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 16, 00:44 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 15, 00:50 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 14, 00:56 UTC
YIELD$0.02Mar 13, 00:26 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

13/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 3 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

block

Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.

Resolved-only track record

review

3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity8 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence10 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry27 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk78 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 1
Avg trade size: $158.69
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Feb 14, 00:37 UTC
Last active: Apr 1, 00:11 UTC
Win rate sample: 3 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 07:22:29 UTC·src:Polymarket Data